Poker Odds Strategy: Any Two Cards Can Win
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Have you ever heard the saying, “Any Two Cards Can Win”? The saying refers to poker, and if you’re lucky, it’s true!
Yes, the outcome of any poker hand, ultimately comes down to luck, but an educated and experienced player can certainly use the odds to his advantage. The theory is similar to that of the stock market. The results of a day’s ups and downs can make or break anyone’s bag of luck; however, there are traders who can and do continuously profit off of the stock market because they know how to play the game.
In poker, you can really take the “odds” with a grain of salt. There’s always a chance, and any two cards can win. But, there is a skill called Hand Selection that allows a player to know what hands have positive expected value. Here’s an example of positive and negative expected hand value to help explain this concept, which isn’t as complicated as it seems:
For the sake of this example, let’s say that you are dealt 100 hands and every time, it is a A-A vs. 7-2 off-suit showdown. Let’s say each player bets $5 per hand, resulting in a $10 pot. After playing 100 hands, you each have wagered $500, $1000 total. Since pocket aces will win about 88% of the time, the player with A-A will win 88 out of 100 times, or in money terms, this player will win approximately $880 (a profit of +$330). On the other hand, the player holding 7-2 off-suit, the worst hand in hold ‘em because both cards cannot be used to make a straight or a flush, will win the other 12 hands (a loss of $380). This example should help you realize the importance of polishing the skill of hand selection.
Some common hand percentages:
- A pocket pair flops a set around 12% of the time
- A hand of A-K will flop at least a pair around 37% of the time
- A hand of two suited cards will flop four cards to a flush around 11% of the time
So, what makes certain hands better than other hands? In the example above, we learn that pocket pairs, specifically big ones, can be a very strong hand, with the potential to win without help from the community cards. Furthermore, when a high pocket pair meets matching community cards, the result is a set or a full house, both of which are powerful poker hands.
Higher cards are, obviously, better than lower cards, as they result in better hands with bigger kickers. Suited cards (of the same suit) have a good chance of creating flushes, while connectors (consecutive) or near consecutive cards, will more likely result in a straight. Even better are suited connectors, which increase the odd of a straight, flush, or rarely, a straight flush. Additionaly, hands that use both hole cards are typically stronger than hands that only incorporate one hole card, as they are less likely to produce a tie and split pot.
There is a chart of the 70 most playable hands, written by David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth, included in their book, Hold ‘em for Advanced Players, (page 14-15). By studying this chart, you will greatly increase your knowledge of hand selection and be able to incorporate it into your game, in turn, increasing your chances of playing a hand for which any two cards can win!
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If you found this article helpful, here are some other articles you might find interesting:
So You Want to Play Poker?, Picking the Right Table, Poker Movies, Poker History, Poker History 2, Poker Room Reviews
If you are interested in purchasing the books referenced in this article, you can purchase them here:
Resources
1. Gordon,Phil. Poker: The Real Deal. New York: Simon Spotlight Entertainment, 2004.